Courtland SuttonorRoman Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton outscores Roman Wilson in 56% of simulations.
Roman Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Courtland Sutton is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 7.1 half-PPR points in Week 5. Roman Wilson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Courtland Sutton faces the Los Angeles Chargers (6% fewer than average to WRs). Courtland Sutton still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Courtland SuttonWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Roman WilsonWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR42 | WR43 |
| Matchup | at LAC | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 3.3 | 9.4 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 3.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |