Brian Thomas Jr.orRoman Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. outscores Roman Wilson in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Roman Wilson comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Brian Thomas Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Roman Wilson projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Roman Wilson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Brian Thomas Jr. faces the Philadelphia Eagles (5% fewer than average to WRs). Brian Thomas Jr. still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 11.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Roman WilsonWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| PPR projection | 8.1 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR43 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.3 | 9.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 3.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |