Brian Thomas Jr.orCourtland Sutton?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton outscores Brian Thomas Jr. in 56% of simulations.
Brian Thomas Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Courtland Sutton is the better bet, not a sure thing. Courtland Sutton projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Brian Thomas Jr. has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (14% more than average to WRs); Courtland Sutton faces the Carolina Panthers (11% fewer than average to WRs). Courtland Sutton still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 11.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.0
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Courtland SuttonWR, DEN, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | WR46 | WR42 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 81% |
| Trade value | — | — |