Antonio WilliamsorJordan Addison?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Start Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison outscores Antonio Williams in 55% of simulations.

Antonio Williams still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Jordan Addison is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jordan Addison projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Antonio Williams has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Jordan Addison faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs). Jordan Addison still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Floor
1.7
Median
5.7
Ceiling
13.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
53%
Jordan Addison
Floor
2.2
Median
6.4
Ceiling
14.3
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
47%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAntonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETJordan AddisonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.97.5
PPR projection8.58.9
Standard projection5.36.2
Rank this weekWR43WR40
Matchupvs INDvs MIA
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.96.9
Last season per game—8.1
Snap share, last game41%98%
Trade value——