Devaughn VeleorJosh Downs?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Devaughn Vele in 56% of simulations.
Devaughn Vele still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Downs projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Devaughn Vele faces the Atlanta Falcons (13% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 15.8
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Devaughn VeleWR, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR33 | WR29 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 6.0 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 68% |
| Trade value | — | — |