Adonai MitchellorJosh Downs?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Adonai Mitchell in 57% of simulations.
Adonai Mitchell still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Adonai Mitchell projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Adonai Mitchell has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (1% more than average to WRs); Josh Downs faces the Miami Dolphins (11% fewer than average to WRs). Josh Downs still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Adonai MitchellWR, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | WR43 | WR47 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 4.5 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |