Adonai MitchellorDevaughn Vele?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Devaughn Vele
Devaughn Vele outscores Adonai Mitchell in 60% of simulations.
Adonai Mitchell still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Devaughn Vele is the better bet, not a sure thing. Devaughn Vele projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Adonai Mitchell has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (1% more than average to WRs); Devaughn Vele faces the Carolina Panthers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Devaughn Vele still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 13.3
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Adonai MitchellWR, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Devaughn VeleWR, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.3 | 7.0 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 8.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | WR43 | WR39 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| Last season per game | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 93% |
| Trade value | — | — |