Adonai MitchellorBrian Thomas Jr.?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. outscores Adonai Mitchell in 58% of simulations.
Adonai Mitchell still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Brian Thomas Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Brian Thomas Jr. has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (22% more than average to WRs); Adonai Mitchell faces the Buffalo Bills (1% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.6
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Adonai MitchellWR, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | WR43 | WR42 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.1 | 4.1 |
| Last season per game | 4.5 | 8.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 52% |
| Trade value | — | — |