Josh DownsorXavier Hutchinson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Xavier Hutchinson in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Xavier Hutchinson comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Xavier Hutchinson projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Downs faces the Miami Dolphins (11% fewer than average to WRs), Xavier Hutchinson faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 59%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR45 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 5.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 81% |
| Trade value | — | — |