Antonio WilliamsorCarnell Tate?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Start Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate outscores Antonio Williams in 56% of simulations.

Antonio Williams still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Carnell Tate is the better bet, not a sure thing. Carnell Tate projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Carnell Tate faces the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs), Antonio Williams faces the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Antonio Williams is the pick at 52%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Floor
1.7
Median
5.7
Ceiling
13.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
53%
Carnell Tate
Floor
2.7
Median
6.3
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
<1%
Dud (under 6):
46%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAntonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETCarnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.97.0
PPR projection8.59.5
Standard projection5.34.6
Rank this weekWR43WR42
Matchupvs INDat BAL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.96.3
Last season per game——
Snap share, last game41%88%
Trade value——