Antonio WilliamsorChris Godwin Jr.?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Chris Godwin Jr.

Chris Godwin Jr. outscores Antonio Williams in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Antonio Williams comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Chris Godwin Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Antonio Williams projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Antonio Williams has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Chris Godwin Jr. faces the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs). Chris Godwin Jr. still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Floor
1.7
Median
5.7
Ceiling
13.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
53%
Chris Godwin Jr.
Floor
2.0
Median
5.8
Ceiling
12.6
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
52%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAntonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETChris Godwin Jr.WR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.96.8
PPR projection8.58.6
Standard projection5.35.0
Rank this weekWR43WR45
Matchupvs INDvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.95.9
Last season per game—7.4
Snap share, last game41%62%
Trade value——