Josh DownsorLadd McConkey?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Ladd McConkey in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ladd McConkey comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ladd McConkey projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs); Ladd McConkey faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Ladd McConkey is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 13.9
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Rank this week | WR41 | WR38 |
| Matchup | at PIT | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 34% |
| Trade value | — | — |