Brian Thomas Jr.orJosh Downs?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Brian Thomas Jr. in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brian Thomas Jr. comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Josh Downs projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Brian Thomas Jr. has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (22% more than average to WRs); Josh Downs faces the Atlanta Falcons (8% more than average to WRs). Josh Downs still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Brian Thomas Jr. is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.6
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.4 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 8.6 |
| Standard projection | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Rank this week | WR48 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at TEN | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |