Germie BernardorJosh Downs?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Germie Bernard in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Germie Bernard comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Germie Bernard projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (8% more than average to WRs); Germie Bernard faces the Cincinnati Bengals (10% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Germie BernardWR, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 8.6 |
| Standard projection | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Rank this week | WR44 | WR47 |
| Matchup | at CIN | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | — | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |