Mack HollinsorTory Horton?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Mack Hollins
Mack Hollins outscores Tory Horton in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tory Horton comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mack Hollins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tory Horton projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Mack Hollins faces the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to WRs), Tory Horton faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Mack Hollins wins 58%; in Standard leagues, Tory Horton is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 11.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mack HollinsWR, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tory HortonWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR46 |
| Matchup | at BUF | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 6.3 |
| Last season per game | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 22% |
| Trade value | — | — |