Mack HollinsorTed Hurst III?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Ted Hurst III

Ted Hurst III outscores Mack Hollins in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Mack Hollins comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Ted Hurst III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ted Hurst III projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Ted Hurst III has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs); Mack Hollins faces the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Mack Hollins is the pick at 54%; in Standard leagues, Ted Hurst III wins 59%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Mack Hollins
Floor
2.4
Median
6.0
Ceiling
11.8
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
50%
Ted Hurst III
Floor
2.5
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.5
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatMack HollinsWR, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTed Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.76.9
PPR projection8.57.9
Standard projection4.96.0
Rank this weekWR47WR44
Matchupat BUFvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.26.4
Last season per game6.5—
Snap share, last game76%75%
Trade value——