Mack HollinsorTed Hurst III?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Ted Hurst III
Ted Hurst III outscores Mack Hollins in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mack Hollins comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Ted Hurst III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ted Hurst III projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Ted Hurst III has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs); Mack Hollins faces the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Mack Hollins is the pick at 54%; in Standard leagues, Ted Hurst III wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.0
- Ceiling
- 11.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Mack HollinsWR, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| Standard projection | 4.9 | 6.0 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at BUF | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.5 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 75% |
| Trade value | — | — |