Carnell TateorTed Hurst III?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Carnell Tate
Carnell Tate outscores Ted Hurst III in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ted Hurst III comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Carnell Tate projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Ted Hurst III faces the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate wins 59%; in Standard leagues, Ted Hurst III is the pick at 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 7.9 |
| Standard projection | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| Rank this week | WR42 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at BAL | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | — | — |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 75% |
| Trade value | — | — |