Carnell TateorTed Hurst III?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate outscores Ted Hurst III in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Ted Hurst III comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Carnell Tate projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Ted Hurst III faces the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate wins 59%; in Standard leagues, Ted Hurst III is the pick at 62%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Carnell Tate
Floor
2.7
Median
6.3
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
<1%
Dud (under 6):
46%
Ted Hurst III
Floor
2.5
Median
6.2
Ceiling
12.5
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
48%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCarnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTed Hurst IIIWR, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.06.9
PPR projection9.57.9
Standard projection4.66.0
Rank this weekWR42WR44
Matchupat BALvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.36.4
Last season per game——
Snap share, last game88%75%
Trade value——