Carnell TateorJameson Williams?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams outscores Carnell Tate in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Carnell Tate comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Jameson Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jameson Williams projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Jameson Williams faces the Carolina Panthers (19% fewer than average to WRs). Jameson Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Jameson Williams wins 60%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Carnell Tate
Floor
2.7
Median
6.3
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
<1%
Dud (under 6):
46%
Jameson Williams
Floor
2.2
Median
6.6
Ceiling
14.6
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
45%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCarnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJameson WilliamsWR, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.07.7
PPR projection9.59.3
Standard projection4.66.1
Rank this weekWR42WR38
Matchupat BALat CAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.35.9
Last season per game—11.0
Snap share, last game88%82%
Trade value——