Drake LondonorJaxon Smith-Njigba?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Drake London in 69% of simulations.
Drake London still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 5.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Drake London has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 9.3
- Median
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 32.3
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 3%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake LondonWR, ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.6 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.6 | 23.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.6 | 16.5 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | WR1 |
| Matchup | vs BAL | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.8 | 25.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.0 | 17.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 88% |
| Trade value | 35 | 93 |