Carnell TateorJordan Addison?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate outscores Jordan Addison in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jordan Addison comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jordan Addison projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Jordan Addison faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Jordan Addison is the pick at 58%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Carnell Tate
Floor
2.7
Median
6.3
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
<1%
Dud (under 6):
46%
Jordan Addison
Floor
2.2
Median
6.4
Ceiling
14.3
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
47%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCarnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJordan AddisonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.07.5
PPR projection9.58.9
Standard projection4.66.2
Rank this weekWR42WR40
Matchupat BALvs MIA
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.36.9
Last season per game—8.1
Snap share, last game88%98%
Trade value——