Antonio WilliamsorMack Hollins?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins outscores Antonio Williams in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Antonio Williams comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Mack Hollins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Antonio Williams projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Antonio Williams has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Mack Hollins faces the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to WRs). Mack Hollins still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Floor
1.7
Median
5.7
Ceiling
13.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
53%
Mack Hollins
Floor
2.4
Median
6.0
Ceiling
11.8
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
50%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAntonio WilliamsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETMack HollinsWR, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection6.96.7
PPR projection8.58.5
Standard projection5.34.9
Rank this weekWR43WR47
Matchupvs INDat BUF
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.97.2
Last season per game—6.5
Snap share, last game41%76%
Trade value——