Josh DownsorRyan Flournoy?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Ryan Flournoy in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ryan Flournoy comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ryan Flournoy projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (23% more than average to WRs); Ryan Flournoy faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 13.6
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 16.0
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ryan FlournoyWR, DAL, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.7 | 6.2 |
| Rank this week | WR32 | WR31 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.8 | 7.7 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 68% |
| Trade value | — | — |