Carnell TateorMatthew Golden?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden outscores Carnell Tate in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Carnell Tate comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Matthew Golden, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Matthew Golden projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Matthew Golden faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Matthew Golden still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate is the pick at 55%; in Standard leagues, Matthew Golden wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Matthew GoldenWR, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Standard projection | 4.6 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | WR48 | WR45 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.3 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 82% |
| Trade value | — | — |