A.J. BrownorLuther Burden III?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown outscores Luther Burden III in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean A.J. Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 8.8 half-PPR points in Week 8. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (13% fewer than average to WRs); Luther Burden III faces the Seattle Seahawks (24% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| Rank this week | WR23 | WR24 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 61% |
| Trade value | 7 | 13 |