A.J. BrownorKC Concepcion?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean KC Concepcion
KC Concepcion outscores A.J. Brown in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: A.J. Brown comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean KC Concepcion, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. KC Concepcion projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. KC Concepcion has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (5% more than average to WRs); A.J. Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (13% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | KC ConcepcionWR, CLE, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| Rank this week | WR23 | WR22 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 6.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 79% |
| Trade value | 7 | 3 |