Michael WilsonorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tetairoa McMillan comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Michael Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tetairoa McMillan has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); Michael Wilson faces the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs). Michael Wilson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.6 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 14.4 | 12.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR20 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 93% | 95% |
| Trade value | 13 | 3 |