Ashton JeantyorMichael Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Michael Wilson in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (25% more than average to WRs); Ashton Jeanty faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Ashton Jeanty wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.9 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | RB10 | WR10 |
| Matchup | at NE | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.1 | 11.1 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 94% |
| Trade value | 37 | 21 |