Caleb DouglasorMichael Wilson?
Week 8 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Caleb Douglas
Caleb Douglas outscores Michael Wilson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Caleb Douglas, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Douglas projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (25% more than average to WRs); Caleb Douglas faces the New England Patriots (1% fewer than average to WRs). Caleb Douglas still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Caleb Douglas wins 61%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb DouglasWR, MIA, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.8 |
| Standard projection | 10.6 | 8.2 |
| Rank this week | WR13 | WR16 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | — | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 90% |
| Trade value | 27 | 7 |