Garrett WilsonorMichael Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson outscores Garrett Wilson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Garrett Wilson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Michael Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (25% more than average to WRs); Garrett Wilson faces the Cleveland Browns (1% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.9 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.6 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR13 | WR10 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 11.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 94% |
| Trade value | 28 | 21 |