Malik NabersorMichael Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson outscores Malik Nabers in 58% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Michael Wilson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Wilson projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Michael Wilson faces the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs), Malik Nabers faces the Arizona Cardinals (6% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.3
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| PPR projection | 12.0 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.6 | 8.8 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR17 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.2 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.0 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 78% | 93% |
| Trade value | 4 | 13 |