Garrett WilsonorMalik Nabers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson outscores Malik Nabers in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Nabers comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Garrett Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Malik Nabers projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); Garrett Wilson faces the Cleveland Browns (1% fewer than average to WRs). Garrett Wilson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| PPR projection | 14.6 | 14.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR13 | WR12 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 76% |
| Trade value | 28 | 21 |