Deebo Samuel Sr.orNico Collins?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Deebo Samuel Sr. in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Deebo Samuel Sr. comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Nico Collins projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Deebo Samuel Sr. has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); Nico Collins faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR18 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 43% | 73% |
| Trade value | 5 | 26 |