Nico CollinsorZay Flowers?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Zay Flowers in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (3% more than average to WRs); Nico Collins faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.5 | 11.7 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 14.2 |
| Standard projection | 9.4 | 9.1 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR14 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.9 | 13.3 |
| Last season per game | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 66% |
| Trade value | 28 | 20 |