Deebo Samuel Sr.orJustin Jefferson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Deebo Samuel Sr. in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Deebo Samuel Sr. comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Justin Jefferson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justin Jefferson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Deebo Samuel Sr. has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the Green Bay Packers (7% more than average to WRs). Justin Jefferson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 19.3
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| Rank this week | WR21 | WR20 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 43% | 98% |
| Trade value | 5 | 13 |