Justin JeffersonorNico Collins?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Justin Jefferson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Nico Collins projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (1% more than average to WRs); Nico Collins faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Nico Collins still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| PPR projection | 13.7 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | WR18 | WR15 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.1 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 96% | 67% |
| Trade value | 20 | 26 |