Chris OlaveorGarrett Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Chris Olave
Chris Olave outscores Garrett Wilson in 59% of simulations.
Garrett Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Chris Olave is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Olave projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Garrett Wilson has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (1% fewer than average to WRs); Chris Olave faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to WRs). Chris Olave still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 10.2
- Ceiling
- 22.2
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.7 | 11.9 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | WR11 | WR15 |
| Matchup | vs MIN | vs CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.1 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 54 | 27 |