Davante AdamsorMichael Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Davante Adams
Davante Adams outscores Michael Wilson in 57% of simulations.
Michael Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Davante Adams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Davante Adams projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (25% more than average to WRs); Davante Adams faces the Buffalo Bills (average to WRs). Davante Adams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 12.9
- Ceiling
- 26.1
- Big game (20+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Davante AdamsWR, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.3 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 16.7 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 11.9 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR8 | WR10 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.5 | 11.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.8 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 94% |
| Trade value | 46 | 21 |