Ja'Marr ChaseorMichael Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase outscores Michael Wilson in 58% of simulations.
Michael Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Ja'Marr Chase is the better bet, not a sure thing. Ja'Marr Chase projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (25% more than average to WRs); Ja'Marr Chase faces the Miami Dolphins (14% fewer than average to WRs). Ja'Marr Chase still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 13.1
- Ceiling
- 26.2
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.6 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.9 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR7 | WR10 |
| Matchup | at MIA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 20% | 94% |
| Trade value | 57 | 21 |