Garrett WilsonorNico Collins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Garrett Wilson in 56% of simulations.
Garrett Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Nico Collins is the better bet, not a sure thing. Nico Collins projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Nico Collins has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); Garrett Wilson faces the Chicago Bears (11% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 12.7
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 8%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.2 | 15.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.3 | 18.0 |
| Standard projection | 11.0 | 12.3 |
| Rank this week | WR10 | WR7 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.6 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 72% |
| Trade value | 31 | 33 |