Michael WilsonorNico Collins?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Michael Wilson in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Wilson comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Nico Collins projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Nico Collins faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to WRs), Michael Wilson faces the Los Angeles Rams (5% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.3 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | WR18 | WR16 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.6 | 12.9 |
| Last season per game | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 83% | 73% |
| Trade value | 17 | 28 |