DK MetcalforMalik Nabers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Malik Nabers in 56% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so DK Metcalf is the better bet, not a sure thing. Malik Nabers projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (6% more than average to WRs); DK Metcalf faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs). DK Metcalf still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.5
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| PPR projection | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | WR28 | WR27 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 78% |
| Trade value | 3 | 1 |