DK MetcalforJaylen Waddle?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle outscores DK Metcalf in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: DK Metcalf comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Jaylen Waddle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylen Waddle projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jaylen Waddle faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs), DK Metcalf faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DK Metcalf
Floor
3.5
Median
8.0
Ceiling
15.5
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Jaylen Waddle
Floor
2.9
Median
8.0
Ceiling
17.2
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
34%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETJaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.99.2
PPR projection10.711.1
Standard projection7.07.3
Rank this weekWR28WR26
Matchupat CLEat SF
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.18.0
Last season per game10.510.1
Snap share, last game95%73%
Trade value33