A.J. BrownorJaylen Waddle?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown outscores Jaylen Waddle in 56% of simulations.
Jaylen Waddle still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so A.J. Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. A.J. Brown projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. A.J. Brown has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (5% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Waddle faces the Carolina Panthers (11% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 19.3
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 15.5
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | WR28 | WR32 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 8.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 45% |
| Trade value | 5 | 1 |