Jaylen WaddleorKeenan Allen?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle outscores Keenan Allen in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Jaylen Waddle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keenan Allen projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Waddle faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs). Jaylen Waddle still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Keenan Allen is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.2
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | WR26 | WR25 |
| Matchup | at SF | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.1 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 73% |
| Trade value | 3 | — |