Keenan AllenorLuther Burden III?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen outscores Luther Burden III in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Keenan Allen, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keenan Allen projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Luther Burden III faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs). Keenan Allen is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 17.2
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR31 | WR35 |
| Matchup | at WAS | vs NYJ |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 61% |
| Trade value | — | — |