Carnell TateorJaylen Waddle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Carnell Tate
Carnell Tate outscores Jaylen Waddle in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jaylen Waddle comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Carnell Tate projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Houston Texans (2% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Waddle faces the Los Angeles Chargers (6% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jaylen Waddle is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 18.3
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 11.4 |
| Standard projection | 6.9 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | WR20 | WR24 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| Last season per game | — | 10.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 68% |
| Trade value | 11 | 11 |