Deebo Samuel Sr.orDK Metcalf?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Deebo Samuel Sr.
Deebo Samuel Sr. outscores DK Metcalf in 62% of simulations.
DK Metcalf still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Deebo Samuel Sr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 2.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Deebo Samuel Sr. has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); DK Metcalf faces the Cincinnati Bengals (10% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 20.0
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 26%
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 8.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 9.9 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 6.2 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR30 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 7.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 43% | 92% |
| Trade value | 6 | — |