Chris OlaveorJustin Jefferson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Chris Olave
Chris Olave outscores Justin Jefferson in 58% of simulations.
Justin Jefferson still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Chris Olave is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Olave projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (1% more than average to WRs); Chris Olave faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to WRs). Chris Olave still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 21.3
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 14%
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| PPR projection | 15.5 | 13.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.5 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | WR9 | WR13 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.3 | 12.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 96% |
| Trade value | 34 | 18 |