Derrick HenryorJames Cook?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry outscores James Cook in 61% of simulations.

James Cook still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Derrick Henry has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs); James Cook faces the New England Patriots (13% fewer than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Derrick Henry
Floor
7.3
Median
17.4
Ceiling
34.6
Big game (20+):
41%
Dud (under 6):
6%
James Cook
Floor
6.2
Median
13.8
Ceiling
25.7
Big game (20+):
24%
Dud (under 6):
9%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDerrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJames CookRB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection19.515.4
PPR projection20.116.2
Standard projection18.814.7
Rank this weekRB4RB8
Matchupvs TENvs NE
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game24.116.1
Last season per game16.016.8
Snap share, last game67%67%
Trade value6850