Derrick HenryorKyren Williams?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams outscores Derrick Henry in 59% of simulations.
Derrick Henry still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Kyren Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyren Williams projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (9% more than average to RBs); Derrick Henry faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 24.0
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.3 | 15.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 16.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 13.6 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | RB9 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 15.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 64% |
| Trade value | 31 | 37 |